Minnesota State Meet Preview

February 14, 2012

After the worst winter on record, we should all feel fortunate that the Minnesota State Meet is even being held this Thursday! The lack of snow, especially in the southern two-thirds of the state, has meant most teams have had to rely on either snowmaking venues or dryland training for nearly the entire season.  In fact, only the two northern sections held their championships on natural snow. But the big week is here, we've got real snow at Giants Ridge and all the major players are expected to compete.

The State Meet courses are pretty much the same as the past seasons, using the Silver trail for the interval start freestyle races, and then switching over a combination of Cedar/Gold for the classical pursuit format races. For those that have not skied the State Meet courses, they may be in for a rude surprise. The skate course on the Silver is one of the most challenging in the state, with numerous climbs, quick descents and sharp curves. It makes the snowmaking loop at Elm Creek look like NASCAR track with a few speed bumps. The classical course, using parts of the Cedar and Gold trails, is nearly one long climb to the top of Giants Ridge, followed by a long run back to the finishing stadium. Striders and strong double polers can eat up ground, and a fast pair of skis can make you fly home.

There is one important change to note this year: The tracking rule for the classical race has been suspended for reasons of safety due to the low snow conditions, especially off-trail.

As of Tuesday morning, the weather was looking ideal for the State Meet. Morning temperatures around 20F rising to the upper 20s for the afternoon. Unlike last year, where excessive heat generated waxing nightmares, especially in the classical races, if the forecast holds, this year's waxing should almost be a "no-brainer" and allow for a level playing field of competition. And a real pleasure for the hundreds of spectators lining the course.

The Minnesota high school Nordic skiing program is the largest in the Nation. Each season, thousands of high school kids compete over a vast array of trails across Minnesota with many hoping to someday earn a trip to "State". In early February, the sections competition arrives and the competition is winnowed down to a select few. Only eight teams are selected for each boys and girls divisions. And then the top eight skiers not on the winning team move on.

For the most part, the system works well. However, there are chinks in the armor. Most glaring, that a team could advance 4, 5, 6 or even all 7 skiers to the State Meet, but because they didn't win the section title, they aren't scored in the team competition. This season, the Eden Prairie squad suffered heart-breaking section losses in both the boys and girls races yet managed to advance all seven of their boys and six of their girls. The Ely boys, Stillwater boys, and Minneapolis Southwest girls all advanced at least five skiers. (We'll publish an unofficial team scoring of all the teams that advanced at least four, a few days after the State Meet.)

Before we go on to the individuals, we'd like to cast light on just two stories that exemplify the depth of the Minnesota high school racing scene:
• Ian Torchia, 10th grade, Rochester Lourdes, Rochester, MN - Torchia's high school, like nearly all of the southern Minnesota high schools, doesn't have an official high school Nordic ski team. Yet this sophmore skier competed in the Pre-Birkie 26K freestyle race last Saturday, finishing an incredible 8th overall out of a field of more than 400!
• Isaak Ridge, 12th grade, Irondale, New Brighton, MN - Ridge competed in Section 5 on Wednesday, missing out in the selection to advance to the State Meet in his final year. Sunday morning he drove up with to Hayward and competed in the North End Classic race where he finished an impressive 9th out over more than 175 racers in the 24K classical race.
Both stories are all the more incredible when you consider that most high school athletes train and race almost exclusively for the 5K distance!

Our hats off to all the kids who strapped on skis this lousy winter and raced their hearts out!

 

Individuals

Because of the nature of the State Meet courses, some athletes will perform better (or worse) than then their ranking belies. And heck, with a field this competitive, you could run the same race each week and you'd get a different set of results each time.

Starting with the easiest call ... Barring injury, illness, equipment failure, or some act of god, Lakeville North's Ben Saxton should cruise to repeat as the boys champion. While there certainly is some pressure to shoulder being the top ranked candidate all season, Saxton has shown in every race that his ability stands out. So the interesting race is the one for second. And in that race, it is very wide open. Roseville's Sam Elfstrom and Kyle Marshall are two at or near the top of the list as the primary contenders. The talented seniors each have their strength: Elfstrom the better kicker, Marshall the faster skater. Hopkin's Harris Dirnberger has been moving upward most of the season and if recent results are a good indication, then he could be poised to finish in the top five. Jan Ketterson, Bloomington Jefferson, has been the number two ranked skier for much of the latter half of the season, and with an exception skate race could be on the podium next to Saxton. In sections last week, Ryan Davis of Duluth East skied these same State Meet courses and stormed away from the boys field. If he can bring that intensity and fitness again on Thursday, he very well could be second overall. Rounding out the top group of competitors, there is Henry Sibley's Eric Slater, a powerful skier that could finally put it all together, Jake Richards, Detroit Lakes, who unleashed an breakthru performance at the Tour de Twin Cities JOQs, and the conference companions of Calvin Mehrhof, Coon Rapids, and Anders Evenson, Osseo. The top ten should include most, if not all, of those names. Dark horses in the mix include: Zach Goldberg, Minnetonka, Lewis Kunik, Lakeville North, Lucas Mason, Roseville, and Joe Jackson, Forest Lake.

Prediction: Ben Saxton, Kyle Marshall, Sam Elfstrom, Ryan Davis, Harris Dirnberger, Jan Ketterson, Jake Richards, Eric Slater, Anders Evenson, Calvin Mehrhoff.

The girls battle for the overall is a much harder call. Annie Harvieux, Duluth East, has been ranked number one for weeks now, and her combination of pure power and endurance favor her for the top spot on this challenging course. But Wayzata's Alayna Sonnesyn is the top finisher from the 2011 State Meet, and appears to have recovered her classical form in time to take the title away from the senior. Most likely the title will be decided between those two athletes. But in the wings are a tight group ready to take the mantle. Rocci Wohlk (aka "the rocket"), Forest Lake, has defeated tough conference foes all season as well as posting great JOQ results. But as a freshman, Wohlk might need one more season to make that final step to the top. Stillwater's star Nora Gilbertson was hamstrung by a poor skate time in last's years championship (she leapt 22 places in the classical pursuit) but in the past weeks, Gilbertson's skating times have improved to match her already strong classical. In her senior year, there could finally be a podium place awaiting. Roseville's Nikki Reker has been ramping up as well, and should be close to Gilbertson at the end. Mattie Watts, Irondale, another of the top crop of J2 skiers, has been skiing at a new level this season and with her engine and powerful double poling, could move into the top ranks in the pursuit. Dark horses include: Sarah Benton, Hopkins, the second highest returning skier, could rebound with another strong State Meet performance; Burnsville's Vivian Hett has been quietly inching up the leaderboards and could surprise a lot of skiers Thursday; Sonja Hedblom, Eagan and Kris Bourne, MPA, will also be part of the top ten mix. Also keep an eye out for two more northern stars, Ely's Amy Bianco and Duluth East's Chelsey Youngberg, to be breaking their way into the top grouping. And one more -- Claire Galvin, Minneapolis Southwest, if fully recovered from her broken foot, could shock the field with a top five finish.

Prediction: Annie Harvieux, Alayna Sonnesyn, Nora Gilbertson, Rocci Wohlk, Mattie Watts, Vivian Hett, Nikki Reker, Amy Bianco, Sarah Benton, Kris Bourne.

 

Teams

Number four. Each year it seems like the team title balances on the performance of the fourth skier in the scoring position. The Roseville boys bring one of the strongest trios to the State Meet in recent memory, as at one point Sam Elfstrom, Kyle Marshall and Lucas Mason were all ranked in the top 10. So the spotlight falls unfairly on their number four, Wilson Pietruszewski. Truthfully, unless the Roseville trio sweeps the podium, they'll share in part of the blame should the vaunted Roseville team lose their grip on the title. Luckily, sophmore Pietruszewski has been improving all season, moving up in the JOQ results and finishing 12th in their tough section. However, the Duluth East boys have been quietly tuning up in their northern stronghold and with just over a two minute spread between the flying Ryan Davis and their number four skier at sections, and racing on their "home" course, they appear ready to repeat as champions. Hopkins, Minnetonka and Brainerd all have great teams with four solid skiers, and on the right day could make a run at the top. And their top skiers will undoubtedly play a role in deciding the title between Roseville and Duluth East. Rounding out the teams, Forest Lake, St. Paul Central, and Eagan have aspirations of podium finishes.

Boys Prediction: Duluth East, Roseville, Hopkins, Minnetonka, Brainerd.

The Duluth East girls have steamrolled along, ping-ponging in that top ranking with Wayzata, most of the season. Like the Roseville boys, Duluth East features three of the most talented skiers in the state with Annie Harvieux, Chelsey Youngberg and Sophie Schuder. Had former teammate Anna Kubek not opted to devote her skiing passion to biathlon, Duluth East would be the runaway favorite. Wayzata had moved into a powerful union by mid-season, but the team dynamics shifted and they have struggled more recently, needing to win their section by relying on Alayna Sonnesyn's speed to bust a tie-breaker. Stillwater has been gaining respect as the typically deep team has pulled together, gaining speed and moving up. We could easily see Stillwater making that final peak at State, pulling off the upset and collecting yet another championship title. Getting little respect skiing out of central Minnesota but featuring a very solid mesh of skiers, Little Falls could be the real surprise of the group. The Falls team seems to make the State Meet year-in and year-out, but hasn't reached that top rung in a while. Roseville girls could be in the mix at the top, but recent team performances seem to have fallen off. Winona, Hopkins and Burnsville hope to make a run at the medals against stiff competition.

Girls Prediction: Duluth East, Stillwater, Wayzata, Hopkins, Little Falls.

The action gets underway at 10 am Thursday with the boys freestyle race. And pack the stadium in the afternoon as the boys classical pursuit kicks off at 1:30 pm.

Hopefully you've enjoyed our annual preview.  We've gone and stuck our neck out with our predictions, check back Thursday night and revel in just how wrong we were ...