2015 Wisconsin High School Nordic Championship Prediction

Well this should be easy. Two teams, two individuals-done! Nailed! A few sentences later, I collect my royalty check, and catch the next plane for Europe for a little World Cup race cheering (Go USA!), ski some in a lovely setting or two, and perhaps just a little fine chocolate to balance everything out. So let's get to it.

First of all, let me say I was absolutely spot on last year. Sure we had some surprises, but I predicted that too. Padding your bets is always a good thing and this year will have some “variables” that murky up the crystal ball just a bit.

Last year we had 18 teams represented, including some middle school stand alone programs. This year some have reorganized, disbanded, and renamed, so the total number will have to be found somewhere in the booklet, after this deadline could be accomplished. I know Central Nordic is gone, some of their skiers attempting to bond and band with Ashwaubenon. Wausau Newman/Marawood is now known at Wausau United, which this year is rare for anything to be united, so best wishes. There were a few newly minted head coaches, some morphed from head to assistant, and a little drama along the way; a pretty typical year in Wisconsin, and I'm not talking about the Packers-anymore-Ever!

This year, back at Telemark, the course has been changed slightly from the previous configuration with a few less road crossings, stadium issues, and of course the trail itself, and while the terrain remains essentially unchanged, it has undergone extensive widening and flattening, sculpting curves and generally bringing it up to FIS “D” standards in anticipation of the 2015 IPC World Championships, and the 2016 US Junior Nationals. Quite an investment. That will impact the field this year as the techniques have been reversed from 2014. An individual classic start on the 5.5 k, double tracked to a “best line as we can get it” will make the waxers and classic specialist get a leg up on the field. Sunday's Freestyle Pursuit should have enough width for passing with 9m up and 6m down giving all competitors a pass and gain access where required, while the skate specialists drool.

So, enough of the warmups, the Star Spangled Banner's been sung, time to get it on. For teams, Ashwaubenon's been ramping it up with a rather strong cast of characters, both boys and girls. In my view it's theirs to lose. Lots of returning veterans, a few moving up from the middle school ranks, and a large degree of “buyin” to an arduous training program makes this my call...except the boys, and Lakeland, and their boys. A fairly strong threesome in Mack FitzPatrick, Will Bodewes, Luke Bodewes, and then you add in Senior, Keegan Mullen, and a wild card freshman and something could click for this group...except in the interest of long term development, international ski relations, and bigger and better, Mack FitzPatrick will not be at state, having qualified for the “Scando Trip”, this year to Sweden. Sob, sob, so the other boys will have to pick up the slack. We'll see. 4-H Canski, last year's team champions lost a couple of leader to graduation, which happens, every year. At the same time that Liphart clan has another one in the pipeline in Colin, and then there's Dalton Collins, and Bradley Kubik that might provide interest. Madison was third last year and has a couple of rising stars in Henry Gore and Russell O'Brien, but the question, as always is; “Do the have a third?” Time will tell. Of course Peak Nordic boys, with a fifth last year are never counted out. With Riley Nilsen, Brad Bass, and Chayce Roeker all closely grouped, they could be contenders, well coached as they are. There are many other teams with quality skiers, but having a full contingent of three able to score tells the tale. We always have strong individuals such as Sam Williams (Iola), Mark Wenzel, (Wausau United), and Ben Nicols and Arlen Fletcher (Wausau East/West) may also tweak the team scoring. But long story short, Ashwaubenon has the dogs and without Lakeland's, it's a done deal-maybe.

On the girls side for teams, we again look to Ashwaubenon. Last year they had two varsity girls. No score, not enough bodies to make it happen. Now they move little fireball Abigail Jarzin from Middle School into the high school ranks, they take a Top Ten Liz Slaby and fine tune her, and perhaps one other top ranked girl, and you've got a state championship team. Stay tuned for this one. Iola? Champs last year? Well, the lost their top two girls to graduation, sadly. What ever happened to retention? They do it all the time in Texas High School football! Why not Nordic skiing in Wisconsin? Anyway, they have two dandies in the Zajakowski twins, Anna and Mya. Both excellent athletes, but they're looking for a third, a familiar theme. The historically strong team of Peak is back in full form after a third team placing last year and they are a factor. Maria Gesior had a fifth last year, Ruthie Barbour a seventh, and Julianna Dodd a 14th. All back, all improved, I'm sure, and that may be enough to do the trick. But then there's Lakeland. At second last year in team scoring, they lost senior individual champion to that insidious thing called graduation. However, with Nicole Gilman stepping up her game, 10th place last year senior Sophia Weiss looking positive, and 13th place Emily Kubisiak smiley as ever, they may have the magic potion brewed up. Stray individual results could skew the analysis, so stay tuned.

I'm also going to mention Hayward. They have a strong trio in the Jackson girls with Kyra and Keeley being supported by Alexia Abric. That could be enough to give Ashwaubenon heartburn and at least another worry to consider. It's not easy being top ranked with someone always looking to topple you. This is an historically powerful team that has lots of backing, and “infrastructure” and could come on strong. They won at conference and all look healthy.

On the individual boy's side, last year's state Champ, Dan Delestry is back. He's rebounding from a bit of a flat spot in his career and looking healthy and happy in early outings and is building strength as the season progresses. He will be a factor. With Mack FitzPatrick out for the Euro trip, Lakeland's Will Bodewes looks eager to fill the shoes of his team mate. Of course, Arlen Fletcher of Wausau, and Daniel Pederson of Spooner might have something to say about that as they were both top five last year. Mark Wenzel, Wausau United, and Andrew Bailey, Ashwaubenon could also factor into the fray as they were also top ten last year. Let's see who's done their homework.

The girls will have a hard time besting Alissa Niggemann. As number three last year, she returns stronger than ever. With hardly a stumble in early season racing, she's ranking high and will need a major blowup not to claim the title, but that's been done before. There are a lot of top tens returning in the aforementioned Geisor (5th), Slaby (6th), Barbour (7th), Victoria Trantow (Madison 8th), and Weiss (10th). Just outside those eager returning places are the lessor known who have done their summer homework, bringing excited energy to test their skills at state and emerge into the spotlight; the surprise fillies waiting in the wings to spring forth in a new order.

So there you have it. Another year of predictions spot on, without flaw, and with just a few escape clauses. Bring your bells, hoot and hollar, because Telemark will be rockin' soon as Wisconsin high school spirit brings out the best in Nordic skiing.