Minnesota State Meet Preview

February 9, 2015

The 2015 edition of the Minnesota High School Nordic Skiing Championships brings a lot of change. One of the most striking will be visual, as those familiar with the venue are sure to notice the removal of the old sports dorms next to the chalet as Giants Ridge prepares for a new event center. The sports dorms opened in 1984 as part of an Olympic training center, and it's sad to see this chapter close. Ironically, the State Meet grows in size this year as qualifying changed to take the top two teams from each section, as well as the top six skiers. This translates to an additional 40 skiers (a 33% increase) competing this season. To accommodate the increased numbers, and a slower average pace, the meet schedules have been adjusted, as well as the seeding for the individual start races. The highest ranked skiers (based on section results), will start near the front of the field this year, instead of the middle.

More often than not, it appears the weather will be cold once again for the State Meet. As of Monday, the National Weather Service forecast called for a low of -17F Wednesday night, and a high on Thursday of 4F. If this forecast holds true, there may be changes to the schedule, so stay tuned (check the Racing Outlook for our latest updates). The same forecast also calls for snow, perhaps 2-4” on Tuesday, which should provide a nice refresh for already good conditions at Giants Ridge.

The State Meet format and courses remain unchanged. The morning starts with separate boys and girls freestyle races, with interval starts, racing on the Silver trail. The course is a brutal sawtooth, constantly rolling up and down hills once the skiers are in the woods. In the afternoon, skiers switch to classical equipment (or perhaps risk a double-pole race on skate equipment?). The skiers will start out based on their morning skate time margins, allowing for the true champion to be crowned as the skier that crosses the finish line first. The Cedar and Gold trails will be used for the classic pursuit, with a layout that basically climbs, sometimes steeply, for the first two thirds, then mainly descends for the final third.

If you’ve been following our high school rankings, you’ll know that Zak Ketterson, Bloomington Jefferson, will not be defending his State Meet title as he will continue to represent the US in some European races. The girls title is also open, as Irondale’s Mattie Watts graduated last spring. Watts provided one of the more legendary moments in State Meet history, winning her title on a pair of borrowed skis last season.

Individuals

It’s been at least five seasons since we’ve had a State Meet without a clear favorite. There are a lot of skiers with a real shot at the title, and undoubtedly a few that could surprise us. If there was ever a season where we could be embarrassingly wrong in our predictions, this is the one!

In the boys race, Leo Hipp, Forest Lake, Tamer Mische-Richter, Bloomington Kennedy, Cory Rouw, St. Cloud Tech, and Sean Cork, St. Louis Park, have the best shot at winning it all. Hardly a bold prediction, seeing as these four finished 3-6 at last year’s competition, and are the top four returning skiers. Hipp has that ability to raise his game to the level of competition, especially going head-to-head. Mische-Richter and Cork have been living in the shadow of Ketterson for the past couple of seasons, have made great improvements again this winter, and are eager for that chance to finally stand on top. Rouw shocked us last season with his 4th place finish, but it would be no surprise if he powered himself to the title this year as he has been skiing well most of the season. Hanging just back, perhaps deserving a little more respect, two northern stars Reed Melicher, Mesabi East, and Keaton Long, Duluth East, have been getting stronger as the season has progressed, and Giants Ridge is basically their home field. Also keep your eye on two future champions, Anders Sonnesyn, Wayzata, and Patrick Acton, Eagan. Those guys have nothing to lose and will be throwing everything at a chance to crack the podium. Our prediction: Hipp, Rouw, Mische-Richter.

The girls race is every bit as challenging to predict. The front runners include Nicole Schneider, Wayzata, Anna French, Wayzata, Rocci Wohlk, Forest Lake, Michaela Keller-Miller, Wayzata, Sarah Bezdicek, Osseo, and Margie Freed, Eastview. Schneider is our number one ranked skier but will have a number of obstacles to overcome. Returning from a tough weekend of racing in Sweden, Schneider will have to recover from the travel and adjust to the seven hour time change, and then starts near the very back of the field. But Scheider has shown the ability to step up to a challenge, including an impressive performance last year at Junior Nationals when she was asked to race up with the U20 girls relay team and took the team from eighth to fifth as the anchor. French is the soft-spoken threat; an incredible running talent, she gets better and better each time she’s on the snow. Ever since her stunning third place finish as a ninth grader, Wohlk, has been tagged as a favorite each State Meet. When Wohlk is on, she has proven to be one of the very best, but will need to push the ghosts of past State Meets aside make a bid for the crown. Freed is the second fastest returning skier from last year’s State Meet (French is first). Freed has been very dominating in her high school races and could make that next step forward to the top rung. Keller-Miller has been very close to toppling her own teammates this season, and with a good classical time (like her last JNQ) could finally come out on top. Bezdicek has had some impressive results at times this season, and could very well be the leader coming off the Silver course Thursday. There is such a huge group of front runners, and yet there are still more contenders. Erin Moening, St. Paul Highland Park, and Anna Johnson, Mesabi East, are both just sophomores and will have little pressure -- they could unleash something surprising. Our prediction: French, Wohlk, Keller-Miller.

Teams

With three girls ranked in the top ten, Wayzata is the obvious choice for the team title and should fend off all challengers. The race for second will be tight, and perhaps a dead rematch of last year’s State Meet where Armstrong tipped Stillwater by a single point.  Both squads have very deep and talented teams, and this race will be extremely exciting. The Eastview girls will be looking for a little more respect, hoping to crack that bubble and push one or both of those teams down. Eden Prairie could surprise some, especially if Abigail Drach is rested and ready (Drach is on the same European trip as Schneider and Ketterson). Our prediction: Wayzata, Stillwater, Armstrong.

The boys race appeared to be a two horse race a few weeks ago, but with Forest Lake’s new lineup, things became a lot murkier. St. Louis Park is in the drivers seat now, and given their propensity for fast skis, should win it all if they ski to their abilities. Forest Lake can’t be counted out though, as they seemingly will themselves to personal bests. A repeat performance of Forest Lake's section victory could bring them in contention for the overall. Duluth East always seems to be in the mix, and while not as strong as some of their past teams, this crew may have a chip on their shoulder, hoping to let their skis do the talking Thursday. However, nearly all of the remaining teams in our top ten rankings have a shot at cracking the top three. Our prediction: St. Louis Park, Forest Lake, Duluth East.

Guest Predictions

This season we’re trying something new: We’ve asked former State Champions to weigh in with their own State Meet opinions! Zak Ketterson is uniquely qualified, as he raced against most of the contenders all season. Ketterson’s commentary on the boys (filed before sections):

Mattie Watts was put in the hot seat for her predictions. Watts is now racing with the University of Vermont, and only has race experience with a handful of this year’s candidates when she was back for US Nationals in January. Watt’s commentary on the girls:

Wrapup

Every year a number of factors play unknown roles in the State Meet. It is a single day event, a once a year shot to say you were the best in Minnesota. Each skier will have to deal with their own adversities - possible equipment issues, wax, temperatures, fitness, etc., and yet they all race the same course, and in the end, it many times comes down to who has the biggest confidence, the inner strength to overcome all those nagging issues, and climb above the noise and just ski - ski like they are the true champion they know they are. No one awards titles based on rankings or past performances. Make it your race, give it your all, and finish knowing you did your best!

Best of luck to all the skiers, coaches, and supporters -- keep warm!