Minnesota State Meet Preview
February 9, 2016In a season where many skiers didn’t get in their first race until about a month ago, having the State Meet on Thursday seems premature -- heck, we could be racing for another month it seems! However, it looks like Mother Nature is ready, as once again subzero temperatures are in the forecast, possibly generating a delay for the morning races. (We’re posting event updates in our Racing Outlook).
No major changes are expected for the 2016 edition of the State Meet. However, last season ushered in the new two-team section advancement, which has increased the number of skiers participating. The courses and format remain the same: individual (or possibly double) start skate races on the hilly Silver course in the morning, followed by classical pursuit races on the long climb, fast descent Cedar/Gold courses in the afternoon.
One change to note for the spectators: The new event center construction at Giants Ridge will have an impact on the parking, forcing most vehicles to park in the lots south of the main chalet. Plan for a little hike up to the start area to get you warmed up!
Individuals
So the race for second, and beyond, is where all the excitement will be. Xavier Mansfield, Spring Lake Park/St. Anthony, is the leading contender for the “best of the rest”, and is the highest returning skier to the State Meet. His strongest competition will come from Wayzata’s Anders Sonnesyn, and we believe, one of the northern stars: Seth Prigge, Ely or Sam Olson, Proctor/Hermantown. The top three should come from that core group, but there are a number of others that expect to have their names in the hat: Patrick Acton, Eagan, William Kerker, Minneapolis Southwest, and perhaps Spencer Krog, Mesabi East. Our top three prediction: Zak Ketterson, Xavier Mansfield, and Seth Prigge.
The girls race to the top of the podium should be very interesting. The State Meet courses have frequently shown one skier to shine in the skate, only to be crushed in the classic. And leading at the top of the Gold course has not always resulted in the winner -- many a State Meet has been decided on the downhills coming back to the stadium!
Margie Freed, Eagan, has been one of the most consistent performers all season, and if she can get her classic dialed in, she will be hard to beat. Michaela Keller-Miller, Wayzata, the second place finisher last year, has been running just a hair behind most of the season, and could take it all with a strong performance Thursday. Robbinsdale-Armstrong’s leading lady, Hannah Rudd, has had the best form of late, and it would be no surprise if she rose above the field. Those three represent the most obvious candidates for victory, but there is a huge field of talented skiers that could easily have that epic race and breakaway for the win. These include Erin Moening, St. Paul Highland Park, Anja Maijala, C-E-C, Claire Benton, Hopkins, Anna Johnson, Mesabi East, and Erin Bianco, Ely. Our prediction for the top three: Margie Freed, Hannah Rudd, and Michaela Keller-Miller.
Teams
As interesting as the individual battles are, it's the team competition that really adds the drama to the State Meet. Seven skiers from each of the 16 teams will impact the scoring. As we saw in the section meets, every point matters, and possibly, every tick of the clock!
The boys teams have been pretty fluid this season, and this will present a pretty wide open competition for the State Meet. In the driver's seat, as of late, are the Wayzata boys. They have a solid group of mostly very young skiers, and have been getting better as the season has progressed. The teams most likely to run them off the road are Stillwater, Ely and Minneapolis Southwest. Ely is perhaps the most improved team coming into the meet, and will be skiing on familiar territory after sections championships at the Ridge last week. Stillwater has their usual deep squad, and with some improved performances this week, could use that depth to push down some other clubs and secure the victory. Minneapolis Southwest has a number of strong horses, and if they ski to their full abilities, have a great chance at coming out on top. While their chances seem less likely, two underdogs, Mora and Forest Lake, are worth keeping an eye on. Predictions: Wayzata, Ely, Stillwater.
The Robbinsdale-Armstrong girls have been riding the number one ranking all season, and still look the best on paper to finally claim that title. Armstrong has a fantastic core of girls that have grown up together, pushing themselves to improve, and should hold it together in the classical race just enough to win. However, Wayzata seems like that tiger waiting to pounce -- with some top performances, and perhaps a slip in stride by Armstrong, Wayzata could repeat as State champions. Fighting for a spot on the podium will be Stillwater and Ely. Stillwater girls mimic their boys squad, with a deep set of talented skiers, and could pull it together to move up in the standings. Ely is the relative unknown, sporting three good skiers and needing a special performance from a fourth to make a run at a higher finish. It should be noted, there is one more squad that if allowed to score, could have taken a spot on the podium: The Hopkins girls will have their four stars racing (and we look forward to doing some virtual scoring afterward). Predictions: Armstrong, Wayzata, Stillwater.
Former Champion Predictions
We started a new tradition last season, and we’re happy to say we’re continuing it this season: We have last year’s champions, Leo Hipp, Forest Lake, and Sarah Bezdicek, Osseo, providing their own take on the State Meet predictions!
Sarah Bezdicek:
Once again the State meet will have some stiff competition! Many of the girls have shown very strong results in high school races and JNQs, but there have been many surprises along the way which make it tricky to determine who will come out on top. As far as individual champions go, I think the race will be tight between Margie Freed, Hannah Rudd, and Michaela Keller-Miller. Margie had exceptionally consistent state results the last two years, placing in the top 6, so she could dig deep and take it. Hannah also placed high in past state meets and is really picking up speed toward the end of this season so keep your eye out for her. Michaela was runner-up last year and with some fire she could stride to the top. However, there will be many girls giving those three a big run for their money. Erin Moening, Kelly Koch, Renae Anderson, Claire Benton, Anja Maijala and Ingrid Thyr are all strong skiers to fill out the top 10 and might slide in for a top three podium spot. I think whoever can crank out a solid skate race and have the mental power to conquer the Gold trail will be in a very good position.
As for the team title, the depth of Robbinsdale Armstrong’s team will likely carry them to the win. Wayzata has been to state year after and know what’s up so they will try to stay on Armstrong’s heels while Stillwater will likely duke it out with Wayzata.
Good luck to all the racers! Have fun and ski fast!!
Leo Hipp:
The Minnesota State Meet is a day that every skier growing up in Minnesota dreams of racing in, all with different goals for the race. Here are my predictions for the guys race:
Individuals: 1. Zak Ketterson 2. Xavier Mansfield 3. William Kerker
Team: 1. Forest Lake 2. Minneapolis Southwest 3. Stillwater
Training with Zak and being one of his close friends, I can attest to his high level of fitness and talent this season. He is going to be too much of a match for the rest of the boys field. We all want to see him double pole the classic race; let’s hope he does! Xavier Mansfield has been racing on top form since U.S. Nationals and will be ready to show the field his great form and fitness, putting him at number 2. William Kerker is my number 3 for the race based on his strong result at Mesabi on the State skate course. Other guys to watch: Anders Sonnesyn, Sam Meyers, Patrick Acton, and Davis Long.
My team predictions may seem biased since I am a Forest Lake grad, but I know how well that team has the ability to up their game when it matters most and perform at their peak fitness, showcasing that at their section championships last week. It's hard to say but I am going to put Minneapolis Southwest and Stillwater on the podium as well.
Prediction-bombing: Sam Elfstrom (my teammate, and Roseville grad) wants to give Isaac Miller from Roseville a shoutout and good luck!
Wrap Up
One thing that is for sure: Our predictions are going to be wrong. Yes, before you get too worked up about which team is favored to win or that skier that wasn’t mentioned, it pays to remember that every year we make these “educated” guesses, and every year we have things wrong -- and we love it! Part of what makes the State Meet great is the surprises, the kids that pull off that phenomenal race to rise up to shine brightly. Be that skier!
Best of luck all to all the competitors, may you keep your skis on the trail and your heads held high!
We’ll have same day coverage, with hopefully photos from the freestyle races and some video from the classical pursuit. And then look for our final word (and some additional scoring) in a State Meet recap early next week.